Landslide Risk Assessment

          Our most notable uncertainty is the line of no data that extends from the north to the south of the island near the eastern tip. We are unsure as to why this line occurred, but predict that it was a gap in data from the ClimateBC program.

We would like to make it clear that this assessment is by no means completely accurate, nor does it predict that landslides are going to occur in certain areas at any given time. The climate data used was from the decade of 1991-2001, so the past 10 years are not included, and climate has been warming and precipitation has become more variable. Fluctuations in precipitation with changing climatic events could increase or decrease landslide risks. Land use change also has significant effects on landslides, and we do not know exactly where deforestation or other types of development is occurring, and whether slopes are being stabilized or left at risk.

          Other GIS landslide risk analyses emphasize that the successful application of GIS to assess natural disaster hazards is still fairly limited; and as such its capabilities for prevention and mitigation are less than ideal. GIS technology is limited by the accuracy of raw data, the complexity of predictive models, costs, and hardware capabilities (Carrara, 1999). As such, the expansion of available and accurate data will likely improve this type of assessment.