Data Used in Analysis
Crime Data: The crime (point) shapefile was taken from "Investigating Crime: A Spatial Analysis of Criminal Activity in Ottawa , Ontario " project from Geography 471 in 2006. The 2006 group acquired this data from the Ottawa police department website.
Weather Data: Weather data for Ottawa was acquired from the Environment Canada website. The temperature data was recorded from the Macdonald-Cartier International airport for all of 2005 and until March of 2006.
Parks & Roads: The roads and parks shapefiles for Ottawa were acquired from DMTI for the year 2006.
Community / Recreation centres: The location data for community and recreation centers was taken from the Ottawa community center website, created and maintained by Ottawa City Hall. YMCA location data was taken from Mapquest.
Police Departments: The location of all the police stations and community police centres was taken from the Ottawa Police Services website.
Linking Crime and Temperature
Crime Data was joined with temperature data using the attribute time. The temperature data was merged to get temperature readings for every hour from January 2005 to the end of March of 2006 into one file. The time was then changed to a 24 hour clock so that it could be joined to the 24 hour clock for every crime that occurred in the same time period. We used the programs R and ArcMap to accomplish these tasks.
Geocoding
In order to create point shapefiles for community centres, recreation centres, police stations and community police centres the data had to be inputted into Excel. The data was then saved as a database file. An address locater was created in ArcCatalog for US street names and saved. The databases were then loaded into the address locater. The unmatched addresses were inputted using editor in ArcMap and verified using the website MapQuest.
| Layer | Source |
| Community Centres | Georeferenced by Mark Kascha and Michael Weisman |
| Land Use | DMTI Data |
| Parks | DMTI Data |
| Police Departments | DMTI Data |
| Socioeconomic | Statistics Canada, 2001 Census |
| Temperature at Time of Crime | Environment Canada Weatheroffice Data for Ottawa |
| Time of Crime | City of Ottawa Crime Data |
Rationale of Variables Used
Community Centres
Community and Recreation centres play an active role in building communities, teaching children and increase the overall fitness of its participants. The list of services and benefits of these centres is an extended one. They offer after school programs, senior services, different modes of recreation, learning programs and play a role in creating strong communities. Furthermore, these centres play a role in decreasing crime. They reduce the chance of an existence of a criminal marketplace, reduce adolescent crime via after school programs, and implement community care to its participants. After school programs also decrease the probability of substance abuse among youth. The programs and education offered by community and recreation centre's prevent youth and future adults from causing crime.
One way in which community and recreation centers reduce crime is by having after school programs for youth. In an article by Gottfredson and Gerstenblith in 2004, they discovered that youth who participated in after school programs reduced delinquent behaviour, especially middle-school students. Community centers offer a wide range of after school programs for youth such as sports, leadership, educational and volunteer groups. Most adolescent crime occurs after school peaking between 2 and 6 pm. After school programs "increase involvement in constructive activities, but by increasing intentions not to use drugs and positive peer associations" (Gottfredson et al. 2004). These centers also provide programs for increasing social skills and character development. After school programs also decrease the probability of substance abuse among youth. The programs and education offered by community and recreation centers have a significant role at preventing youth and future adults from causing crime.
Furthermore, recreation and community centres are a deterrent to crime because they increase the care in a neighbourhood. In "Broken Glass" written by Wilson and Kelling, the level of care in a neighborhood affects the amount of crime. Higher levels of crime can be found in areas with high levels of social disorder and deteriorated physical conditions. The article explains that the cause of deteriorated physical conditions is residents not caring about their community. One unprepared broken window on a street can quickly lead to more and criminal activity in that neighbourhood. However, community centers increase the level of care in a neighbourhood. With slogans such as "we build strong kids, strong families, and strong communities" by the YMCA, it is apparent that a caring neighbourhood is one of there goals. "Crime Prevention Ottawa", a new community geared initiative in which communities and community leaders develop plans to create safer neighbourhoods, is helping to promote community care and safety. With the growing care and community strength in Ottawa we expect to see a decrease in crime in areas with multiple community and recreation centers as well as a decrease in crime in closer proximity to these centers.
Finally, community centers reduce the chance of a criminal marketplace being located close by. Criminal marketplaces are areas with high levels of crime and can be crime hot-spots. An article by May and Hough in 2001, explains that criminal activities follow the same principles as legitimate economic markets. There is an interaction between consumers and producers. Illegal drugs are the demand and the consumers need money to purchase. As drug prices rise so do the incidences of crimes. "A market (legitimate or criminal) will be sustained, as long as beneficial environmental factors exist" (DeMotto and Davies 2006). However, community and recreation centers prevent physical and social deterioration in neighborhoods as they increase levels of care. Furthermore, with the reduction in substance abuse by youth, and with character and social development for their future, areas surrounding community centers will have a reduced chance of being crime hot-spots. One of the largest deterrents to crimes is the risk perceived by an offender. Ottawa is increasing its community care and with more people watching, crime will be limited.
Community and Recreation centers are a major deterrent to crime. They prevent future adults from engaging in criminal activities through after school programs. Also, they increase levels of care in neighborhoods, which deters the opportunity for criminal marketplaces and crime hot spots. For the city of Ottawa we expect to see a negative relationship between property crime, violent crime and hot spots in relation to number of community centers.
Click here for MAP of Community Infrastructure
Land use
Crime, violent or not, is strongly related to socio-economic data. Land use, however, is not a strong predictor of crime. However, their are conditions in which commercial and residential areas can have higher amounts of crime. Lack of surveillance and reduced community care can be factors in increasing level of crime in these areas. Commercial and residential areas have different variables that affect the amount of crime in an area.
Areas with commercial land uses have an intricate relationship with the people that reside there. "Both residents and shopkeepers contribute to street safety" (Jacobs 1968). During the day, patrons that travel the streets contribute to safety. "Land uses other than stores, such as small institutions or businesses, will draw regular users and promote street safety" (Taylor et al. 1995). With more people traversing the streets of business' surveillance and risk is increased towards crimes. With a busy street, occupied buildings and heavy traffic commercial land are more of a deterrent to crime than residential areas. Business owners can help look after streets during open business hours helping to deter crime. However, if poor levels of care and deteriorated buildings exist in commercial areas the quantity of crimes significantly increase. Higher levels of traffic and increased surveillance in commercial areas helps lower levels of crime.
Crime in residential areas is strongly linked to levels of deterioration and poverty. A comparison of crime between commercial and residential neighborhoods is difficult as the number of crimes for residential areas is based on the poverty levels and deterioration of a city. Crime will be greater in residential regions, when compared to commercial areas if there are high levels of deterioration and poverty in a neighborhood. Residential crime is dependent on poverty, commercial crime is dependent on surveillance and community.
In the case of Ottawa, we do not expect to find a large difference in the number of crimes between residential and commercial regions. Ottawa does not have a level of poverty or excessively large number of deteriorated neighborhoods.Click here for MAP of Land Use
Parks
Two decades ago the role of parks in crime was unclear. With tall trees, shrubbery, and dark foliage it seemed like the ideal place for crime to occur. With plenty of places for burglars to conceal themselves and disappear into, parks were feared as a place for crime. Studies conducted by Talbot and Kaplan revealed a consensus that "heavily vegetated areas seemed dangerous" (Talbot and Kaplan 1984). However, the study conducted by Kuo and Sullivan proved otherwise. Parks and areas with green space reduce crime as they increase surveillance which increases the risk to criminals. Furthermore, parks reduce mental fatigue which would decrease crime as aggression levels decreased.
In the late eighteenth century, English philosopher Jeremy Bentham, created a unique design for a prison. The design allowed for an observer to observe (opticon) all ( pan) prisoners without the prisoners knowing they were being watched. The design was termed Bentham's panopticon. Instead of having a guard visibly watching the cells, the cells were backlit and the prisoners were unaware they were being watched. While under surveillance, criminals are less likely to commit crimes or misbehave. One of the most important variables as to whether a criminal will conduct a crime is surveillance. "Many studies have shown that perpetrators avoid areas with greater surveillance and greater likelihood of intervention" (Kuo and Sullivan 2001). The increased chance or possibility of being watched can be enough deter the crime from happening. Parks and greeneries typically have wide open spaces with fewer places to hide. It does not require a lot of eyes to survey a wide open park. Furthermore, Kuo and Sullivan argued that the "more trees in a space, the greater the number of simultaneous users" (Kuo and Sullivan). Regardless of the number of trees, surveillance of a park is typically high. Children in inner city green spaces are twice as likely to be supervised as in barren spaces. Parks are typically populated and heavily watched areas. With wide open spaces and with many eyes, criminals are less likely to commit crimes in and around parks.
Parks and green spaces play a role in reducing psychological precursors to violence. Contact with nature reduces symptoms of mental fatigue such as, "irritability, inattentiveness and decreased mental fatigue", all of which "are well-established psychological precursors to violence" (Kuo and Sullivan 2001). Vegetation also helps in reduced levels of mental fatigue in a variety of forms. The contact with vegetation can be through window views onto parks, dense vegetation or a simple community park. Routine Aggression Theory (Anderson 2000), explains how environmental factors affect levels of aggression. Parks are non-chaotic environments that help reduce the stresses and impacts on aggression created by variables such as crowding, temperature, atmospheric gases (eg: ozone). Through psychological effects, parks help to reduce levels of violent crimes.
Evidence helps prove that vegetation prevents crime. Violent crimes are reduced, as green spaces reduce levels of mental fatigue. Property crimes in surrounding areas decrease due to increased levels of surveillance. Overall, we expect to see lowered levels of crime in areas immediately surrounding parks as well as a reduction in crime hot spots in areas with high numbers of parks.
Click here for MAP of Community Infrastructure
Police Departments
Police departments have a reputation for decreasing crime in a community. They increase surveillance, increase the risk to criminals and ultimately detain and arrest criminals. A police station helps create more community care and promotes community volunteer programs to help deter crime. However, we believe that Police Stations and community police departments will only show a drastic decrease in crime in immediate surrounding areas and levels of crime will stabilize shortly after.
Surveillance is a great deterrent to crime "The simple presence of more 'eyes on the street' would deter crime" (Kuo and Sullivan 2001). In close proximity to police stations, police surveillance, whether perceived or real, helps to deter crime. "The potential for conviction is a greater deterrent than actual punishment" (Demotto et al. 2006). The possibility of being convicted and the increase risk to crime is a major deterrent to criminals. Police stations should decrease criminal behavior drastically in close proximity to the police station.
We do not expect to find any major relationship between proximity to police stations and crime after the immediate vicinity of the police station. With police surveillance equally dispersed throughout a city, variables other than location to police stations have a stronger relation to crime. With current technologies being implemented into crime research, such as the use of CrimeStats and GIS, police enforcement is placed throughout population and in areas that need it the most. We do not expect proximity to police stations, outside of immediate proximity, to affect crime.
In Ottawa we do not expect to see a strong relationship between crime and proximity to police departments. We expect to see a strong decrease in crime in close proximity to police departments, however, after that we expect to find crime levels to stabilize to normal levels dependent on other variables.
Click here for MAP of Community Infrastructure
Socioeconomic Factors
There is no shortage of data linking crime to areas of poverty and resource deprivation. Crimes can be divided into several categories, violent, non-violent and criminal marketplaces. Criminal marketplaces are defined as crime hot spots that foster illegal economic business based on drug prices and opportunity for crime. For a criminal marketplace to be established, certain socioeconomic variables need to be present.
Violent crime and the quantity of violent crime is strongly linked to neighborhood context. "Deprived neighborhoods are generally more violent, and are the settings of more serious offenses than non-deprived neighborhoods" (Baumer et al. 2003). Several links have been made between income level and resource deprivation and the quantity of violent crime. There are several hypotheses for this relationship. One is that victims in deprived neighborhoods are more likely to resist attackers, leading to further injuries. Another hypothesis is that assaults in these neighborhoods are more likely to be conducted by an offender with a gun. More violent crimes tend to happen in neighborhoods that are "characterized by high levels of poverty, joblessness, and welfare dependence, and a large proportion of families headed by females" (Baumer et al. 2003). Furthermore, in these neighborhoods people have a general low level of trust and faith in the police and authority system and develop their own rules or a "code of the street". In deprived and low-income neighborhoods, violent crime is at its highest as people are more likely to conform to rules outside of the legal system. Finally, certain census characteristics have a positive relationship with probability of, and quantity of, criminal offences a person has. "The total number of criminal offences committed is a function of intelligence, age, education, previous offence history, wealth, and family upbringing (Ehrlich 1996). High levels of violent crime are linked to the previously mentioned variables and to areas of high deprivation.
Property crime tends to happen in areas of high poverty. Several approaches can be taken for understanding this. One variable in increasing criminal activity is a general income inequality in a city. As income inequality increases so does property crime. One theory to help explain this is that people in absolute poverty are more likely to engage in crime because "the cost of judicial sanctions is less for low income individuals" or a poor person might see property crime as "poor persons method of borrowing against future human capital" (Allen 1996). Levels of poverty, resource deprivation and income inequality have a positive relationship to quantity of property crime.
Finally, certain variables are required for a region to become a criminal marketplace or a crime hot-spot. As is required for both property crime and violent crime, areas of resource deprivation are a necessity for criminal marketplaces to exist. Areas of low community care have a strong positive relationship with criminal marketplaces. With low levels of community care and high levels of poverty the risk and opportunity for a criminal marketplace are high. As community care drops, physical disorder increases, which allows for an illegal economic business. A crime hot spot quickly arises in these areas.
For Ottawa we expect to find all three types of crime. We expect to find the majority of crimes and crime hot spots to occur in high resource deprivation and high poverty neighborhoods. This is the general trend for all three types of crimes. Education and poverty will have a positive relationship with crime.
Click here for MAP of Socioeconomic Factors
Temperature and Time of Day
Usually, when searching for violent crimes, a researcher searches for areas with high physical disorder, poverty, low education and low community care. However, other variables that have been recently linked to violent crimes are temperature, time and location. Research done on Sao Paulo 's high homicide rate shows that time, temperature and location matter in thier relation to violent crimes. However, Sao Paulo and Ottawa are entirely different cities. Ottawa recorded only 10 homicides for 2004 and Sao Paulo recorded an average of 13 a day. The study in Sao Paulo found that violent crimes follow a general aggression model and that high temperatures increase violent crime. Furthermore violent crimes are more likely to occur outdoors, in the afternoon and on the weekend.
Environmental conditions are linked with our psychological condition, more specifically, our level of aggression. Temperature, crowding, atmospheric conditions and vegetation have been linked to increasing levels of aggression (Anderson 1987). The most extensively studied and linked component of environment on psychological conditions is temperature. The general aggression model, developed by Anderson , links temperature and behavior explaining that temperature "heightens physiological arousal and leads to aggressive thoughts and, in certain cases, violence" (Ceccato 2005). However, as temperature increases to extreme levels, based on a person's threshold, the reaction of the person is to avoid the heat instead of increasing in levels of aggression. This makes the relationship between temperature and aggression curvilinear. In his study, Anderson aggregated the crimes into several categories based on time, date and type of crime. His studies divided the crimes into violent, including murder, rape and assault, and non-violent crimes including burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. He concluded after several studies that violent crimes have a stronger relationship with temperature and that the relationship strengthens during the hotter portions of hot years. Anderson found his research to hold true even as demographic and economic variables were statistically removed. However, the temperature crime relationship is affected by location. Ceccato's study of Sao Paulo 's relationship between temperature and violent crime showed that there was no one time of year in which the greatest number of homicides occurred. However, in the northern hemisphere there is a positive relationship between violent crimes and the summer months.
Click here for MAP of Temperature at Time of Crime
The relationship between violence and weather is strongly based on location and time. A violent crime is more likely to happen when more people are outside. This leads into routine activity theory which was created by Cohen and Felson in 1979. "This theory suggests than an individual's activities and daily habits are rhythmic and consist of patterns that are constantly repeated" (Ceccato 2005). Crimes are linked to people's routine activity and are more important for explaining the variations in homicides. In the case of Sao Paulo, homicides increase as people's routine activity patterns change. Conflicts often peak during people's free time. During the longer day's of the hot season people are more in contact with each other increasing the likelihood of a violent encounter. "Conflicts often reach a peak when people meet each other in their free time, at evenings or weekends"(Ceccato 2005). Furthermore, a violent encounter is more likely to occur later in the day, as there is a lag effect in aggression levels. Finally, violent crimes occur in poor neighborhoods regardless of time of year.
Ottawa, unlike Sao Paulo, does not have a high violent crime and homicide rate. However, based on the general aggression model and the routine activity theory we expect to find higher violent crime rates in the summer months, at later times on the weekends. As temperature increases significantly in the summer months we expect to see higher levels of violent crime from May to September for Ottawa as peoples aggression levels increase during these hotter times. As people routine activities change and more people are outside and in contact with other people, we expect to find an increase in violent crimes in the summer months.
Click here for MAP of Time of Crime
Sections
