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In
the process of
constructing and executing our project, we were constrained by several
limitations and came across numerous uncertainties in our data,
methods, and
results. At the very base level, there is little evidence to indicate
that
Vancouver or any other municipality in Canada would even consider
implementing
geographic residential exclusion zones for sex offenders or any other
type of
convicted criminals, now or in the future. Many
studies in the Unites States have found that Megan’s Law has little or
no
effect on reducing sexual re-offences of convicted sex offenders once
released
back into the community, and that the law also has no effect on
reducing the
number of victims involved in sexual offenses (10). Costs associated
with the
implementation of the law also continue to grow over time. Many
researchers
have concluded that given the lack of demonstrated effect of Megan’s
Law on
sexual offenses, these growing costs may not be justifiable (10).
Albeit this,
we found the examination of a genre of legislation so prevalent in the
United
States and with such geographic significance to be extremely pertinent,
even if
there is little chance of it ever becoming a reality in our city and/or
our
nation.
Data
As
always when using data from Statistics Canada, areal aggregation issues
arise,
such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem, and the ecological fallacy.
In order
to use the valuable census data, however, these concerns are
unavoidable. Also,
while not a source of uncertainty we could control, this data was from
the 2006
Census and as such more than a few years old at the time of our
analyses. Land
use types could have changed slightly in the interim, or rent prices
increased/decreased, and thus our conclusions could be slightly
inaccurate.
Areas
on the UBC campus and surrounding Endowment Lands were presented in all
our
analyses as available residential locations for sex offenders. Much of
the
housing near UBC is restricted student housing, however – even existing
private
residences are either extremely expensive (in the Endowment Lands) or
largely
student-occupied. We are thus hesitant about the reliability of this
data, and
also of the practicality of convicted sex offenders living on a
university
campus.
Methods
The
buffers used in our ModelBuilder represent absolute linear distances
from the
centre point of the buffered feature, rather than network or walking
distances.
A more accurate analysis of distance could be one that employed network
or
walking paths from the perimeter edge of the building or site being
buffered.
All of the locations buffered were point data except for parks, which
were
polygons. As such distances from the schools, libraries, and
community
centres were calculated from the building centre points rather than
from the
actual property peripheries. This could cause the buffered distances to
be
smaller in reality than they appear on the map. For schools especially,
with
their playing fields and (sometimes) extensive building sites, a
buffered
distance calculated from a single centre point for the entire property
could be
misrepresentative of the distance from the entire school property in
reality
(2).
Results
In
producing the 300 metre buffer map indicating acceptable residential
areas
falling within the lowest monthly rent category, we are assuming that
newly-released sex offenders are without extensive monetary means.
Although
research indicates that finding affordable housing within the
acceptable
residential areas has been presented as a recurring problem for sex
offenders,
there is certainly a proportion who would be able to afford (and
willing to
pay) rent at more than $750 per month. Also, we are assuming in the
entirety of
this project that sex offenders would not only be compliant in
registering with
local law enforcement as a convicted child sex offender, but also that
they would
adhere to the residential restrictions themselves. Many of the studies
conducted in the United States indicate that actually enforcing these
“no-live”
zones is extremely problematic for law enforcement agencies, and thus
would
most likely pose issues for authorities here in Vancouver as well.
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