introduction

This study investigates the correlation between the increases in multi-family houses and crimes in Vancouver, Canada. Focusing on the effects on crime with the increase in multi-family houses, this study employs crime counts in Vancouver’s neighbourhoods as well as various demographic and housing variables using GIS.  While we are uncertain in regards to the effect on crimes from the change in housing trend, we hypothesize that housing and crime exhibit a positive correlation based on the routine activity theory. Numerous authors have noted the importance of routine activity theory to predict crimes and crime rate, and this theory is discussed thoroughly within this research. Our analysis consists of two parts with the uses of crime counts and census data. According to Andresen (2005), “the measurement of crime is a necessity for any quantitative assessment of criminology theory or policy change”, therefore sufficient amount of crime counts data are used to clearly label “hot spots” or “disadvantaged” areas in Vancouver. Further, we investigate the different demographics and housing trends in Vancouver using census data. The ability to present census data spatially is of major advantage with GIS as it allows us to visually compare the changes in certain demographic or housing trends. Meanwhile, we perform an analysis using geographically weighted regression (GWR) using census variables as explanatory variables.  GWR has the ability to provide statistical values that can be used to support our findings and to give insight to further research.

background info

Before any attempt at research is instigated, it is imperative to gain a wider perspective on issues involved through an investigation of the pre-existing literature on the main issues. As our research aims to explore the correlation between multi-family houses and crimes, the following analysis use and synthesize routine activity theory as a basis of providing us with greater insight to promote a focused research on the issues related to the changes in crime rates in Vancouver.

Several well-established academics have tackled the spatial dimension of crime at various scales. Within the literature, Marcus Felcon and Lawrence Cohen’s “Routine Activity Theory” have noted “the dispersion of activities away from households and families increases the opportunity for crime and thus generates higher crime rates” (Cohen, 1979:588). In other words, the basic premise of their theory is that the occurrence of crime depends on the opportunities available rather than the social causes. Correspondingly, Bowers’ work on accessing the linkage between disadvantage and crime in north-west England suggests that demographic, housing, and social conditions all have a strong correlation with crime and have also emphasized the importance of the routine activity theory. His idea is focused on the use of the various kinds of demographics variables, housings, and social conditions to highlight a unique “routine” that might promote the occurrence of crime. His study has concluded that crime is static within a specific region and variable throughout a broader scale.  According to Bowers, this special routine might lead to the “convergence, in space and time, of three key elements; presence of motivated offenders, presence of suitable targets, and absence of capable guardians against crimes” (Bowers, 1999:160). Bowers believe that special demographic group or special pattern within a neighbourhood would encourage crimes. This has been demonstrated with his analysis where different neighbourhoods based on socio-economic status would result in different levels of crimes. In addition, Cohen’s concept supports the idea that “structural changes in routine activity patterns can influence crime rates by affecting the convergence in space and time of the three elements” (Cohen, 1979:589). This view suggests the changes in certain demographic or housing patterns can lead to an influx of crimes. Further, Andresen’s research has also noted, “increase in percentage of rental residences are expected to lead to more activities away from the home, thus leading to more crimes” (Andresen, 2005:261), an opinion that has strengthened our belief in carrying out our study based on the hypothesis.

focus of this study

Our study is focused on determining the correlation between the increases in multi-family houses and crime rates in the city of Vancouver with regard to the most representative area of East Vancouver. East Vancouver houses refer to some of the major neighbourhoods in Vancouver such as Marpole, Killarney and Fraserview. These neighbourhoods are mainly developed for residential purpose, in which our analysis is focused on the increase in multi-family houses, also known as "Vancouver Specials", in these residential neighbourhoods and the relationship between the increases of these houses and crime rate in the study area. In general, Vancouver Specials are referred to the houses that have the ability to house two to three (or even more) different families in one detached unit. These houses are especially popular in Vancouver because of their favourable ability to provide rent income, known as “mortgage helper”, to the owners of the properties. With the continuous increase in housing prices in Vancouver, renting a place is more affordable than owning a property to small families or individuals. Therefore, with the increases in potential renters and "Vancouver Specials", the neighbourhoods in Vancouver are housing more people than ever. This noticeable trend has brought us to the focus of the study: "Multi-Family Housing and Crime in Vancouver.”

Focus area of our study within the orange boundaries, Vancouver. click to enlarge

Source: Google Map

Below is an image of the typical "Vancouver Specials". This property has the ability to house three different families in one detached house. The two front doors on ground level give access to two separate unit while the back entrance on the second level provides access to the top floor.

Figure 01, Multi-Family House in East Vancouver (enlarge)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"The number of dwellings increases the number of targets and the increase in percentage of rental residences are expected to lead to more activities away from home. These variables are expected to have a positive effect on crime measures."

Martin A. Andresen (2005)