Graphs
For all of the graphs, data from the 1971, 1981, 1991, 2001 and 2006 censuses from Statistics Canada were used. It should be noted that, because both the number of census tracts (CTs) as well as the size of CTs change over time, it was decided that the value given to income categories would be the percentage of all CTs relative to that year.
Average Household Income
Figure 1. Average household income distributions for CTs in Edmonton.
In Figure 1, the average household income for the census tracts (CTs) in Edmonton was used. For a single year the income distribution was split up into five categories based on the average income of all CTs for that year. These categories were Very Low Income (40% below average), Low Income (40% to 20% below average), Middle Income (20% below to 20% above average), High Income (20% above average) and Very High Income (40% above average).
The most noticeable trend for Figure 1was the decline in the average household income for those with Middle Income. There was also an increase seen in those with Low Income as well as those with Very High Income.
Average Income of Males 15 and Over
Figure 2. Average individual male income distributions for CTs in Edmonton
Figure 2 was grouped into its categories based on the average male income. In Figure 2 there was a much more pronounced increase in the CTs classified as Low Income. What is also interesting here is that there seems to be a slight increase in Middle Income which peaks in 1981, but then experiences a decreasing trend from there through to 2006.
Average Income of Females 15 and Over
Figure 3. Average individual female income distributions for CTs in Edmonton
Figure 3 was grouped into its categories based on the average female income. There were less obvious trends for females than there were for males in Figure 2. The trend seen for Middle Income, however, was quite similar to that of the males. There was a peak in 1980 for middle income followed by an overall decline through to 2006. There seems to have been clear trend for Low Income or High income in this case, but there did seem to be a positive increase in Very High income for females.
Average Income of Males vs. Females 15 and Over
Figure 4. Comparisons of average individual income of males and females for CTs in Edmonton
Another analysis, presented in Figure 4, was to see what sort of difference there would be between the income of males and females in Edmonton over time. As documented by the graph, both male and female income saw an increasing trend over time.
The average income of females experienced an increase from just under 40% to that of male income in 1970 to over 58% to that of male income in 2005. That said, there still seemed to be quite a bit of income disparity between males and females in Edmonton up until 2006.
GIS
1971 Income
Figure 5a. Average Household Income, Census Tracts, City of Edmonton, 1971
Mill Woods, in southeast Edmonton, was one area of particularly low income in 1971. South-central Edmonton had quite a few areas of lower income. An area of higher income was Fort Saskatchewan northeast of Edmonton. Most rural areas had middle income. There were also some smaller areas of higher income in north and northwest Edmonton.
2006 Income
Figure 5b. Average Household Income, Census Tracts, City of Edmonton, 2006
There was a marked increase in income in rural areas along with a significant decrease in central Edmonton. Fort Saskatchewan also transformed from a very high income area into a Middle Income area. There was a particularly large increase in income southwest of Edmonton which, apart from being included in the Census Metropolitan Area,also became an area of Very High income.
1971 Unemployment
Figure 6a. Average Unemployment Rate, Census Tracts, City of Edmonton, 1971
In 1971 there were very low unemployment rates north and northwest of Edmonton and high unemployment rates in the southeastern neighbourhood of Mill Woods (this matches up with the low income there). Central Edmonton seemed to be a mix of neighbourhoods with higher and lower unemployment.
2006 Unemployment
Figure 6b. Average Unemployment Rate, Census Tracts, City of Edmonton, 2006
Overall, there seemed to have been a significant decrease in the overall unemployment rates across Edmonton in 2006. In 1971, the rates ranged from 4.46% to 21.67% while, in 2006, the rates only ranged from 0.00% to 9.30%. Relative to the entire area, however, there was an increase in the unemployment north and northwest of Edmonton and a decrease in unemployment south and southeast of Edmonton.
1971 Average Number of Children
Figure 7a. Average Number of Children, Census Tracts, City of Edmonton, 1971
The rural areas around Edmonton had much higher numbers of children per family than areas in central Edmonton in 1971; however, some areas in southwest and south-central Edmonton also had high average numbers of children.
2006 Average Number of Children
Figure 7b. Average Number of Children, Census Tracts, City of Edmonton, 2006
The average number of children for all of Edmonton was much lower in 2006. The range of values was only 0 to 1.50 compared to 0.5 to 2.48 in 1971. However, the general spatial pattern was the same; families had more children in rural areas than areas in central Edmonton.
1971 & 2006 High/Low Clustering (Getis-Ord General D)
Table 1. High/Low Clustering Analysis Results, Census Tracts, City of Edmonton, 2006
The low p-value indicates that we reject the null hypothesis that the distribution of income was random in 1971. The negative z-score indicates that the area had a clustering of low income values.
1971 & 2006 Spatial Autocorrelation (Global Moran's I)
Table 2. Spatial Autocorrelation Results, Census Tracts, City of Edmonton, 2006
Similar to the high/low clustering, this test also indicates that we can reject the null hypothesis that the distribution of income was random in 1971. The positive Moran's index tells us that there is a tendency towards clustering of values, rather than dispersion.
1971 Hot Spots
Figure 8a. Hot Spot Analysis Results, Census Tracts, City of Edmonton, 1971
In 1971, there was a significant hot spot of low income in the central Edmonton area and one hot spot of high income in Fort Saskatchewan, northeast of Edmonton. The rural areas mostly had no significant clustering of incomes.
2006 Hot Spots
Figure 8b. Hot Spot Analysis Results, Census Tracts, City of Edmonton, 2006
In 2006, the high income hot spots were typically in the rural areas around Edmonton, particularly in the census tracts to the near southwest, west, far east and north. However, some rural areas were also low income 'cold' spots. The central area of Edmonton had no significant clustering of incomes.
1971 Ordinary Least Squares Regression
Figure 9a. Ordinary Least Squares Regression Results, Census Tracts, City of Edmonton, 1971
The OLS was run with income as the dependent variable and unemployment rate and average number of children as the independent variables. The two independent variables seemed to correspond with low levels of income in most areas of Edmonton and particularly north of Edmonton in 1971. Only in Fort Saskatchewan and a few small census tracts in northern central Edmonton were higher unemployment and higher number of children associated with higher income.
2006 Ordinary Least Squares Regression
Figure 9b. Ordinary Least Squares Regression Results, Census Tracts, City of Edmonton, 2006
In 2006, large areas east of Edmonton and southwest of Edmonton showed strong positive correlations where high unemployment and average number of children were related to high average household income. Most of north-central Edmonton showed slightly negative correlations and a large area north of Edmonton showed very negative correlations. There was also an area southeast of central Edmonton that showed negative correlations.
1971 Geographically Weighted Regression
Figure 10a. Geographically Weighted Regression Results, Census Tracts, City of Edmonton, 1971
The GWR shows results that are very similar to the OLS analysis. Higher unemployment and higher numbers of children were associated with a lower income in areas north of Edmonton. Fort Saskatchewan, once again, shows the opposite trend. There is also an area in southeast-central Edmonton that depicted a negative correlation.
2006 Geographically Weighted Regression
Figure 10b.Geographically Weighted Regression Results, Census Tracts, City of Edmonton, 2006
In 2006, large areas east of Edmonton and southwest of Edmonton showed strong positive correlations. High unemployment and average number of children were related to high average household income. Most of north-central Edmonton showed slightly negative correlations and a large area north of Edmonton showed very negative correlations. There was also an area southeast of central Edmonton that showed negative correlations.