Results and Discussion
After performing the MCE, patches of the Abbotsford ALR were classified based on their relative aptness for urban use. Many of these patches were defined by groupings of ALR parcels as our MCE depended on parcel-based variables, such as parcel size and agriculture capability. The suitability of each patch was represented as an MCE score ranging from 0-1, with 0 being the least suitable and 1 being the most suitable for development. The minimum score attained was 0 and the maximum score attained was 0.915. For the purpose of this analysis, any ALR parcel that received a MCE score higher than 0.78 was determined to be desirable for urban development (shown in dark green on the MCE map; represents the last class determined by natural breaks).
These "ideal" areas for development in the ALR covered 1408.459 square kilometers and stretched along segments of the urban-rural periphery in Abbotsford, particularly adjacent to the city's residential land, but further from industrial and resource conservation practices. These parcels can be found in two sites: (1) directly south of the Trans Canada Highway within the Poplar neighbourhood of Abbotsford and (2) in the Matsqui neighbourhood adjacent to the northwest portion of the urban containment boundary. Other ALR parcels identified to be somewhat appropriate for urban growth (those in the second highest class determined by natural breaks, which we shall call secondary land for proposed development in the ALR) were mainly situated at the interface between agricultural and urban land. However, some of this secondary land diffused westward, away from the city and towards the neighbourhoods of Bradner and Aberdeen.
Looking more closely at the two generalized areas, we can see that site 1 lies directly east of the Abbotsford International Airport. Airports may be attributed to the lack of residential development at our proposed site. Dwelling units are usually situated a certain distance away from airports to reduce noise and air pollution from aircraft and ground operations (Kryter, 1994). We were able to rank groups of parcel at a locale scale by surveying the types of urban operation adjacent to each suitable ALR patch (as determined by the Abbotsford Official Community Plan). We ranked the group of parcels in the upper right of site 1 as the most suitable to urbanize due to their relative nearness to institutional and urban residential land uses. If new homes are built beside existing residential zones, natural and urban spheres can remain contiguous to minimize ALR fragmentation and edge effects. Land designated institutional contain schools, churches, and civic facilities (Abbotsford, 2008) which may also be convenient for many families living nearby. There are two major intuitional buildings close to the groups of parcels 1,2, 3, and 4. These facilities include Abbotsford Regional Hospital and Baker View Elementary. It is logistically sensible to build dwelling units here because residents will be within convenient travel distances to social services. The groups of parcels ranked 5 and 6 do not seem as ideal than the rest because they are close to industrial reserve and industrial business land uses. They are located closest to the Abbotsford International Airport and farthest from land use that benefit residential life.
At site 2, a lot of the area has already been rezoned into residential land, which may indicate that the area is indeed ideal for urbanizing. Similar to site 1, the groups of parcels are situated relatively close to residential and institutional land uses right along the rural-urban interface, which is beneficial to reducing edge contrast and conflict between industrial and residential land use types. The institution in the bottom-right corner of the map is Eugene Reimer Middle School and Rick Hansen Secondary School. The group of parcels ranked 1 were chosen based on their appropriate parcel size, as well as their direct proximity to commercial land use and other residential housing. Land designated commercial land use contains large-scale and small-scale retail, which provides a diverse range of consumer markets and services for area residents (City of Abbotsford, 2009). Center Ice Sports Arena is a example of a commercial amenity that is nearest to parcels of group 1. Parcels of group 1 are approximately 3 acres in size, which is ideal for the development of several residential complexes. Groups ranked 2 and 3 were chosen based on their improved connectivity to the city - Downes road, a major road in the area, allows for easy access to each of these plots. As well, group 2 is located near an intersection and, furthermore, surrounded by secondary suitable ALR land, which may be useful for further expansion in the future. Lastly, group 4 does not seem as ideal of an area to urbanize simply due to the fact that it is in the middle of the Abbotsford ALR, which impedes accessibility for residents and increases edge by further penetrating the agricultural landscape.
We would also like to note that building along the edge of the Abbotsford ALR does not necessarily need to discourage all agricultural activity. In each of the parcels, the establishment of agriculturally intensive peri-urban communities or the implementation of roof top gardens may work to mitigate the negative effects of urbanization on the environment. Peri-urban communities, situated along rural-agricultural edges, integrate both urban space and agriculture by enforcing minimum lot size requirements or animal density controls beside agricultural buildings. It also places urban life closer to where food is cultivated. In addition, this can also soften the abrupt change between the land use types and work to minimize their conflict; a softer boundary would mean less flooding of farmland by rainwater runoff from upland urban development through vegetated transpiration and soil infiltration of green roofs, less crop damage and theft from urban trespassers, as well as less odour, pesticide spraying, dust and noise on the urban side (Ministry of Agriculture and Lands, 2009). Just as well, roof top gardens can be implemented to increase the amount of green space within the proposed areas of development. These roof plantings, very much like an agricultural field, may provide food, temperature control, hydrological benefits, and habitats or corridors for wildlife (Ong, 2003).